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An escalation in the trade war between the US and China could take a heavy toll on global growth by 2021, creating price pressures that would force the Federal Reserve to step up monetary tightening, the OECD warned on Wednesday.
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With the global expansion past its peak, there was a risk that tit-for-tat trade restrictions could turn a soft landing for the world economy into a hard one, the Paris-based international organisation said in its latest economic outlook.
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“We’re not talking about a plateau [of growth] any more, but a slowdown,” said Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist. The organisation expects global growth to ease from 3.7 per cent this year to 3.5 per cent in 2019 and 2020 — a slight downgrade from its last forecast but still a healthy rate of expansion.
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